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Mobiyuz — Saddam's Folly

#alternatehistory #assyria #iraq #kurdistan #iraniraqwar #alternatehistorymap #turkmeneli
Published: 2021-08-25 11:13:32 +0000 UTC; Views: 22962; Favourites: 158; Downloads: 32
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Description Iraq had always been an artificial nation. Its creation had been at the hands of British colonial mapmakers who had made the Kingdom of Iraq in 1921. Under the rule of Sunni Arab Hashemites, the Kurds, Assyrians, Turkmeni, and Shia Arabs were sidelined and excluded from power. Even when the Kingdom was overthrown in 1958 the ruling Sunni majority remained emplaced and a fractious republic struggled to exist until 1968, when a coup launched the quasi-socialist Ba'athist Party into power. From there, the Ba'ath consolidated power leading up to the rise in power of Saddam Hussein, whose power grew until he launched his own coup and seized absolute power in the country in 1979. Facing the challenges of establishing his legitimacy to rule, he began to look for a foreign conflict to engender, to unite the nation behind him.

That same year, a revolution had also taken place in neighboring Iran. With the Pahlavi Monarchy deposed and exiled, a reactionary Islamist regime took power under Ayatollah Khomeini, and began to consolidate its own power. Hussein saw both a threat and an opportunity in the chaos. The Islamic Republic of Iran was a threat to his own regime's power, and he had ambitions on the Arab-populated and oil-rich Iranian region of Khuzestan. Just over a year later, Hussein declared war against Iran. For three months they advanced, seizing Khuzestan fairly easily. But when they reached the mighty Zagros Mountains, their advance stalled completely. Soon Iran would be able to advance, but faced with the same logistics of crossing the Zagros their own advance stalled.

This does not concern Iran, however, but the chaos within Iraq. As the war began to drag into an interminable stalemate, the ongoing internal tensions of Iraq started to seethe and boil. Insurgencies in the mountainous northwest, the bastion of Kurdish presence in Iraq, started to sap Iraq's military power. Shia Iraqi elements sympathetic to the Shia Iranians began to organize, presenting a dire threat to the Sunni-majority government. Riots and protests against the Husseinist government broke out all over the country. Iraq had no allies, it was surrounded by enemies: Syria's own Ba'athist government had schismed away years ago, Jordan had no love for its government, Saudi Arabia hated Iran but opposed the Ba'ath, and Kuwait felt itself eternally threatened by Iraq's presence. Surrounded on all sides, fracturing internally, the situation was dire.

Finally, as Iran began concerted efforts to support Kurds and Shia against the Iraqi government, it all came apart at the seams. In 1986 Hussein authorized the Anfal Campaign, a "pacification effort" far more on the scale of a genocide that led Kurdistan to rise in outright rebellion. Their forces were soon allied to Syriac and Turkmen forces that sought independence from what was seen as a failed state, and in early 1987 Basrah fell to Iranian forces, prompting a wave of anti-Sunni violence across southern Iraq. All at once, the world began to pour in: Turkey from the north, Syria from the west, Iran from the east. Hussein was killed by an anti-Ba'athist partisan but by then he had long since lost control of the country. Turkish army forces _said_ they intended to protect their border but in reality wished simply to quell and crush the Kurds, but their resistance had stiffened, and the "Northern Coalition" of Turkmeni, Kurdish, and Syriac forces managed to resist the Turks with shocking efficiency.

As the Iraqi Ba'athist regime collapsed, Syria seized its opportunity and began to support a Damascus-aligned faction to topple the old Husseinist faction, which continued to lose all control as a NATO coalition moved to stabilize the Persian Gulf. Iran quickly organized a new Islamic Republic of Mesopotamia, a puppet regime of their own in the south, and by 1988 a NATO-brokered cease-fire was finally achieved. It had all fallen apart so quickly, and it had ended just as suddenly. Fighting continued, but in the coming weeks as the Treaty of Manama began to draw the new borders it tapered off. By the end of 1988, Iraq was gone, replaced by five new nations. What remained of the core was the Ba'athist Republic of Djazirah, whose government was now loyal to the Damascus Ba'ath and already undergoing discussions for federation in opposition to the Islamic Republic of Mesopotamia, which gave Iran hold over the lower Tigris and Euphrates as well as putting their power directly on Saudi Arabia's border, presenting a new existential threat to the House of Saud.

The Northern Coalition had been predicted by many to fall into infighting almost as soon as the Ba'ath had been driven back, but in another shocking turn of events they stabilized their relationships quite quickly. Kurdistan, Turkmeneli, and Assyria recognized that Turkey, Djazirah, and Iran were all their enemies, and they could not afford to fight amongst each other if they were to survive. Within months of their formation they had organized an effective resistance against the Turks and Djaziri, as well as fighting back the Iranians when the Islamists failed to organize properly. In the coming years they would become remarkably stable nations, continuing to exist in coalition with each other and becoming what Javier Pérez de Cuéllar, General Secretary of the United Nations, described as "shining beacons of secular and progressive democracy in the Middle East".

The breakup of Iraq had fallen along ethnic and religious lines, as so many conflicts in the Middle East tend to do when considering that many of the borders were drawn with zero regard for any local interests, demographics, or anything beyond the imperialist ambitions of Britain and France. And although this breakup should have made the resultant nations more internally stable (moreso than Iraq had been, anyways) the fact that politics had so rapidly evolved during the crisis meant that if anything, the dynamic of power was even more unstable. Iraq was gone, and in its place the balance of power in the Middle East had devolved into a three-way civil war between Islamist Iran, Wahhabi Saudi Arabia, and Ba'athist Syria, made worse by their competing zones of influence that had been carved into the nations once known as Iraq. As the Middle East only grew more chaotic in the coming years, the fact that Saddam Hussein's ambitions to be a leading Arab power caused his own downfall was something that people would not easily forget, that the hubris of a mad dictator had fatally wounded the cause he had sought to achieve.
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