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Description

Map and timeline for an alternate history in which the Cyprus dispute is resolved via a peaceful divorce, joining the European Union together, and pull out of all foreign troops with the exception of the UK's Akrotiri base.

The timeline goes the same is IRL until the 90's, with independence in 1960, a large movement for union with Greece, pro-Greek coup in 1974 followed by Turkish invasion and the proclaiming of Northern Cyprus.

In this timeline, Cyprus's application to the European Union in 1990 is accepted with reservations, as current member states do not want to accept a country with such an egregious border dispute that it doesn't control 1/3 of it's claimed territory, but at the same time doesn't want to allow one country (Turkey) to unilaterally derail another (Cyprus) from entering, lest it set a precedent.

A first internationally-moderated attempt at reunification is made in a 4-year series of talks between 1994 and 1998, eventually collapsing over the topics of Turkish troop withdrawl, settlers from mainland Turkey, and demands for compensation of property lost in the 1974 invasion.

A second reunification plan is discussed between 2000 and 2003, resulting in essentially the same proposal for a confederated as the IRL Annan plan. The plan has the blessing of the UN and EU, as well as the less enthusiastic blessing of Greece and Turkey, and goes to the Cypriot people for a vote. As in IRL, the plan is accepted by the North but rejected by the South. After the failure of a second reunification plan within 10 years, the international community begins to lose ope that a reunification is possible, given the incompatible hard lines in the sand which seemingly cannot be backed down from. After several existing members voicing objections, the European Union puts Cyprus's membership process on hold.

Against this backdrop, the next Cypriot elections take place in a mood of discontent and a growing feeling that it might actually be better not not have to share a country with the Turkish north. The results upend the political order when a president representing a new party, which itself takes numerous seats in parliament, sweeps into power on an androgen of explicit y Greek nationalism and disbandment of living in a side-by-side nation with the Turkish Cypriots. The flag is changed to show the cross emblem of the medieval Kingdom of Cyprus- colored copper to reflect the island's history- against the 9 stripes of the Greek flag, replacing the previous flag which eschewed such symbolism in favor of unity. In addition, the Republic of Cyprus changes it's name to the Greek Republic of Cyprus.

Around the same time, Turkish politics takes on a significantly more pro-Western approach under a newly-elected president who favors stronger ties with Europe and a permanent resolution to the Cyprus problem.

Against this backdrop, a third and final round of talks begin in Helsinki, Finland in 2006 with the Greek Republic of Cyprus, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, the UN, the EU, and the UK. For the first time peaceful separation, under strict conditions, is on the table as an option after the repeated failures in "the graveyard of diplomats" as the island is known. After more that a year of sometimes fraught negotiation, public demonstrations, and challenging compromise, a deal is reached in late 2007 with the following conditions:

- Northern Cyprus to be recognized by all attending parties and allowed to join the UN.

- Turkish and Greek troops to leave the island, local governments to have responsibility for their own policing and defense.

-UK to cede it's Dhekelia base in entirety to Southern Cyprus, while retaining Akrotiri.

-Entirety of the UN Green Line as well as unpopulated exclave of Erenkoy to be incorporated into Southern Cyprus.

-Freedom of religion for Muslim and Christian residents of the "wrong" side fof the border.

-Both states to be admitted into the European Union, achieving much of the freedom of movement and residency that was intended by previous unification plans. As a result of EU membership, residents of the north and south will have the right to travel and trade freely across the border, as well as buy property and reside in the other side of the island.

-No existing residents to be required to return to their country of origin.

After the plan as announced, it again went to a vote by the public. In the North, the plan was accepted by a wide margin, and accepted by a narrow margin in the South. As a result, Northern Cyprus was internationally recognized, Turkish occupation was ended, and both states were eligible to join the European Union in 2008. the EU was the key in achieving a settlement, as full membership strongly "softened the blow" of splitting the island into two states.

14 years on, Northern Cyprus has experienced an economic boom due to the end of the de facto embargo that came with operating as a non-recognized state. Tourism and trade are both up, and while it is still less prosperous than the South, the gap is narrowing. Fears of immediate union by Northern Cyprus with Turkey have been allayed by the explosion of patriotism for the new Cypriot nation, even changing it's flag's colors to refract the island's history of ancient copper much like the South. Further, the residents most likely to support annexation were the same settlers most likely to leave for the Turkish mainland following the pullout of Turkish troops. In the South, talk of annexation by Greece has been lost due to the fracturing of the nationalist right over whether accepting division of the island was "shameful weakness" or "a sacrifice to have a Greek state", leaving the country to be led by Europeanist Liberals and Cypriotist socialists.

Description

Map and timeline for an alternate history in which the Cyprus dispute is resolved via a peaceful divorce, joining the European Union together, and pull out of all foreign troops with the exception of the UK's Akrotiri base.

The timeline goes the same is IRL until the 90's, with independence in 1960, a large movement for union with Greece, pro-Greek coup in 1974 followed by Turkish invasion and the proclaiming of Northern Cyprus.

In this timeline, Cyprus's application to the European Union in 1990 is accepted with reservations, as current member states do not want to accept a country with such an egregious border dispute that it doesn't control 1/3 of it's claimed territory, but at the same time doesn't want to allow one country (Turkey) to unilaterally derail another (Cyprus) from entering, lest it set a precedent.

A first internationally-moderated attempt at reunification is made in a 4-year series of talks between 1994 and 1998, eventually collapsing over the topics of Turkish troop withdrawl, settlers from mainland Turkey, and demands for compensation of property lost in the 1974 invasion.

A second reunification plan is discussed between 2000 and 2003, resulting in essentially the same proposal for a confederated as the IRL Annan plan. The plan has the blessing of the UN and EU, as well as the less enthusiastic blessing of Greece and Turkey, and goes to the Cypriot people for a vote. As in IRL, the plan is accepted by the North but rejected by the South. After the failure of a second reunification plan within 10 years, the international community begins to lose ope that a reunification is possible, given the incompatible hard lines in the sand which seemingly cannot be backed down from. After several existing members voicing objections, the European Union puts Cyprus's membership process on hold.

Against this backdrop, the next Cypriot elections take place in a mood of discontent and a growing feeling that it might actually be better not not have to share a country with the Turkish north. The results upend the political order when a president representing a new party, which itself takes numerous seats in parliament, sweeps into power on an androgen of explicit y Greek nationalism and disbandment of living in a side-by-side nation with the Turkish Cypriots. The flag is changed to show the cross emblem of the medieval Kingdom of Cyprus- colored copper to reflect the island's history- against the 9 stripes of the Greek flag, replacing the previous flag which eschewed such symbolism in favor of unity. In addition, the Republic of Cyprus changes it's name to the Greek Republic of Cyprus.

Around the same time, Turkish politics takes on a significantly more pro-Western approach under a newly-elected president who favors stronger ties with Europe and a permanent resolution to the Cyprus problem.

Against this backdrop, a third and final round of talks begin in Helsinki, Finland in 2006 with the Greek Republic of Cyprus, Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus, Greece, Turkey, the UN, the EU, and the UK. For the first time peaceful separation, under strict conditions, is on the table as an option after the repeated failures in "the graveyard of diplomats" as the island is known. After more that a year of sometimes fraught negotiation, public demonstrations, and challenging compromise, a deal is reached in late 2007 with the following conditions:

- Northern Cyprus to be recognized by all attending parties and allowed to join the UN.

- Turkish and Greek troops to leave the island, local governments to have responsibility for their own policing and defense.

-UK to cede it's Dhekelia base in entirety to Southern Cyprus, while retaining Akrotiri.

-Entirety of the UN Green Line as well as unpopulated exclave of Erenkoy to be incorporated into Southern Cyprus.

-Freedom of religion for Muslim and Christian residents of the "wrong" side fof the border.

-Both states to be admitted into the European Union, achieving much of the freedom of movement and residency that was intended by previous unification plans. As a result of EU membership, residents of the north and south will have the right to travel and trade freely across the border, as well as buy property and reside in the other side of the island.

-No existing residents to be required to return to their country of origin.

After the plan as announced, it again went to a vote by the public. In the North, the plan was accepted by a wide margin, and accepted by a narrow margin in the South. As a result, Northern Cyprus was internationally recognized, Turkish occupation was ended, and both states were eligible to join the European Union in 2008. the EU was the key in achieving a settlement, as full membership strongly "softened the blow" of splitting the island into two states.

14 years on, Northern Cyprus has experienced an economic boom due to the end of the de facto embargo that came with operating as a non-recognized state. Tourism and trade are both up, and while it is still less prosperous than the South, the gap is narrowing. Fears of immediate union by Northern Cyprus with Turkey have been allayed by the explosion of patriotism for the new Cypriot nation, even changing it's flag's colors to refract the island's history of ancient copper much like the South. Further, the residents most likely to support annexation were the same settlers most likely to leave for the Turkish mainland following the pullout of Turkish troops. In the South, talk of annexation by Greece has been lost due to the fracturing of the nationalist right over whether accepting division of the island was "shameful weakness" or "a sacrifice to have a Greek state", leaving the country to be led by Europeanist Liberals and Cypriotist socialists.