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Description
Includes a 5% increase in voter turnout for noncollege white, black, latino races. 5% increase in republican turnout for each racial group. (This percentage increase is going off of 2016 numbers, before covid and mail-in ballots swung the election). Additionally, assuming Desantis is the Republican nominee, I believe he'll be a more attractive candidate to hispanics due to the droves of pro-Trump hispanics in Florida in 2020.

Assuming mail-in ballots don't play a big role, The Republican nominee would win 318 electoral votes and around 50% of the popular vote. Note that I marked Arizona blue due to the large California population that moved there before the 2020 election.

Personally, I believe the election will be closer to this (or a closer race). If Trump is the nominee, I expect both Republicans and Democrats to be more eager to vote, likely weakening the Republican ticket. So for the sake of this I'm assuming Ron Desantis is the nominee. I expect the major issues of the 2024 election to be about the state of the economy/inflation, vaccine mandates, lockdowns, the oil industry/gas prices, Critical Race Theory, and diplomatic relations (China, Afghanistan, etc).

Description
Includes a 5% increase in voter turnout for noncollege white, black, latino races. 5% increase in republican turnout for each racial group. (This percentage increase is going off of 2016 numbers, before covid and mail-in ballots swung the election). Additionally, assuming Desantis is the Republican nominee, I believe he'll be a more attractive candidate to hispanics due to the droves of pro-Trump hispanics in Florida in 2020.

Assuming mail-in ballots don't play a big role, The Republican nominee would win 318 electoral votes and around 50% of the popular vote. Note that I marked Arizona blue due to the large California population that moved there before the 2020 election.

Personally, I believe the election will be closer to this (or a closer race). If Trump is the nominee, I expect both Republicans and Democrats to be more eager to vote, likely weakening the Republican ticket. So for the sake of this I'm assuming Ron Desantis is the nominee. I expect the major issues of the 2024 election to be about the state of the economy/inflation, vaccine mandates, lockdowns, the oil industry/gas prices, Critical Race Theory, and diplomatic relations (China, Afghanistan, etc).