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Dom-Bul — The Triple Commonwealth - V2
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Published: 2018-12-03 23:29:48 +0000 UTC; Views: 20576; Favourites: 182; Downloads: 102
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Description
"Polished" version of my first Commonwealth survival scenario.
timeline beep boop
CW = Commonwealth
Basically, the Commonwealth manages to retain its independence through a better effectiveness during wars and in treaties during the 17th Century.
Scandinavia exchanging its Pomeranian possessions for military support could have let Prussia join Sweden and CW's side, instead of Russia's, in the Great Northern War (1700-1721). (IOTL that war kickstarted the decline of the CW, leading to its partition in 1795)
A better enforced victory in that war could've butterflied the CW's survival to this day. Gaining momentum, future treaties, more on CW's favour, could have just let Russia stay away from Polish-Lithuanian [and Scandinavian] affairs.
In the meantime, with a stronger mainland, the colonies on the Gambia river (Saint Andrew) and in the Caribbean (New Courland) are kept and don't get invaded/evacuated by other powers like OTL.
There comes Napoleon. Without a Polish nation to "free" from Russia as OTL, Napoleon just tries to marry his way to the Polish throne, like he did with his brother Giuseppe in Naples and Spain. Meeting opposition from the Polish people, the campaign of Russia will include an invasion of the CW and the creation of the Duchy of Warsaw (analogue of OTL).
After all that Napoleonic mess, the Congress of Vienna (1815) puts things back in order, and the CW is back to its 1800 borders.
In 1848 there was a real proposal to recreate the Polish nation, starting from Posen, in OTL, surprisingly by Prussia, albeit through its new liberal government. It was stopped by an uprising of the Posen Germans. ITTL the proposal is to give back to the CW the Duchy of Posen. Again, a public uprising halts the project.
It's WW1: the war goes as OTL for the most, the CW puts up a strong defense against Germany's Ober Ost plan, and the German war machine stagnates along the coast. Germany and Russia are separated by the free city of Riga, a safe port to bring Entente supplies and soldiers. The bolsheviks can't manage to keep power during the Russian civil war, and the Russian Republic is established. The minimap on 1916 displays the German and Russian presence on CW territory.
The Treaty of Versailles of 1919 makes Germany cede a long-lost Polish territory: its access to the Baltic Sea. This divides Germany in two, with East Prussia left as an exclave as OTL. This and the many other post-war reparations and conditions pave the way to the rise of German revanchism and Nazism as in OTL.
Nazi Germany invades the CW in 1939, WW2 starts as in OTL. Without the USSR, Germany meets no resistance au pair with its military power, putting all of the CW under Nazi control by 1941. Persecution of the Polish/Lithuanian/Ruthenian/Yiddish peoples and the Holocaust happen, just as OTL. The tide turns in 1944, with a succesful attack at Wolf's Lair, which kills Hitler. In the power vacuum, chaos ensures within the Nazi leadership and the CW manages to recover and push back Germany with Allied assistance.
In the post war treaties, the CW will get East Prussia, and cede the easternmost section of Lithuania to Russia, as a compensation for its support during the conflict.
Germany gets divided according to the Western Allies into a northern Germany and a southern greater Bavaria. Bohemia gets Silesia.
No Cold War without the USSR. The rest of the 20th century is a calm and peaceful time for nations to cooperate.
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Comments: 20
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Polish, Lithuanian-Polish, Ruthenian-Polish? Maybe something like Skian or Západoslavian . Since in this time line, Polish, Lithuanian, and Ruthenian all would be able to merge and change each other to be something like Middle Slavic, rather than it being Eastern and Western Slavic (and Eastern Baltic)
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This scenario has one small problem: east prussia would be stonchly german to this day.
Explanation:
It was the soviets who made east prussia slavic by forcing germans to move out or be killed (for the same reason pomerania and silesia are not german in OTL). I refuse to beleive that the CW ITTL would do same thing the soviets did.
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Well, OTL Poland did the same thing with Germans in Pomerania and Silesia... I find it plausible, as this Commonwealth suffered the same atrocities of OTL's WW2
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OTL Poland did it with a fake smile on their face and with the Soviets cheering them on.
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Very interesting scenario, but there is huge mistake which would tear this state apart as it did in real life.
Commonwealth is English term for republic, but the literal translation would be something like "good for all".
How could this "Commonwealth" of 3 nations be "good for all" when there are 4 nations within it's territory?
Eastern border is Vitebsk-Mahilyow-Homel. More than 85% of present day Belarus is within Commonwealth and yet they are NOT represented! Not in name, not in constituency, not in autonomy!
Commonwealth for Poles, Lithuanians and Rusyns, but NOT Belorussians, even 85% of them live in this CW-3N?
You are mentioning "better effectiveness". But yet, in this scenario you made the very same mistake that inter-war Poland has made.
Entire (4th) nation is subjugated within 3-nations commonwealth. This is NOT effective and would be major factor of instability as it was for the real Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
There are at least 3 more effective scenarios:
1. Commonwealth of Two Nations: Poland and Lithuania.
Rus' remains within Poland, Belarus remains within Lithuania.
Rus' and Belarus are both granted autonomy, or neither gets autonomy, it doesn't matter as long as they are treated equally.
This would be less-just scenario, but still - stable. Belorussians conduct their affairs with(in) Lithuanian constituency, and Rusyns conduct their affairs with(in) Polish constituency. Something like Austria-Hungary.
But, pull factor from Russia is still trying to take those areas out of Commonwealth due to influence that Russia wields through Orthodox Church.
Therefore an church autocephaly for Commonwealth's Orthodox Christians MUST be obtained, or the Commonwealth would encourage transition to Eastern Catholicism. I know, Austria-Hungary again.
2. Commonwealth of Three Nations: Poland, Lithuania and Rus'.
In this case Rus' are both modern Ukrainians and Belorussians.
Rus' or Ruthenia would be all territory where Eastern Slavic language is spoken and/or Orthodox Christianity or Eastern Catholicism is practices by majority of the population.
Poland and Lithuania are reduced in territory, they get to keep "mixed" areas, but Ruthenia becomes a constituency.
The instability would probably linger within Ruthenia between OTL Ukrainians and OTL Belorussians or between Orthodox Christians and Eastern Catholics if Rus' merge was completely successful, but it wouldn't pose a threat to the commonwealth. United Rus' would obtain church autocephaly from the Orthodox Patriarch for itself, and would effectively get out of Russian sphere of influence.
This would be more-just scenario, and definitely more-stable.
3. Commonwealth of Four Nations: Poland, Lithuania, Ruthenia and Belarus.
If Eastern Slavs would not succeed to form Rus' nation, then both of them would have to obtain their own constituency.
Poland and Lithuania are reduced in territory, they get to keep "mixed" areas, but Ruthenia and Belarus alike become constituencies.
Belarus, having more than 85% of territory within the Commonwealth is secured and loyal. Whether they get church autocephaly from the Orthodox Patriarch or they transition to Eastern Catholicism would be irrelevant.
But in this scenario Ruthenia would have to distinguish themselves from OTL Ukrainians remaining outside, either by obtaining church autocephaly from the Orthodox Patriarch or by transitioning to Eastern Catholicism, BUT they should do THE same as Belorussians in order not to disrupt the religious balance (Poland Catholic, Lithuania Catholic, Belarus Orthodox/Catholic, Ruthenia Orthodox/Catholic). It would not be wise to have three Catholic and one Orthodox nation for the sake of stability.
This is the most-just scenario, and the most stable one of course.
Sorry for the long post.
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The goal of every nation is to be stable. History teaches us what happened to nations/states/empires where a significant part of population was subjugated.
I wanted to obviate the fate that befell Austria-Hungary or interwar Poland. Using hindsight.
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I just forgot about Belarus, there was no plot behind it ^^'
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Of course, it wasn't my intention to imply anything.
What I really meant is: Good job! 
P.S.
When I read my post, now I see that I may have over-analyzed.
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CW of ten/eight nations (The four you want plus latvia, courland, kashubia, prussia (still a german minority in polish (southern) east prussia in OTL today and without the soviets, east prussia would remain very much german) and zapadnaya russia (two separate constituencies because they're geographically separated) (ethnically russian areas) though zapadnaya russia could have been fully given to russia in the WW2 compensation)
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